Scientific paper │ Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting

Author(s): P. Bakker, A. Schmittner, J. T. M. Lenaerts, A. Abe-Ouchi, D. Bi, M. R. van den Broeke, W. L. Chan, A. Hu, R. L. Beadling, S. J. Marsland, S. H. Mernild, O. A. Saenko, D. Swingedouw, A. Sullivan, J. Yin
Date: 16 December 2016 
Language: English

The paper investigates how continued warming and melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) might affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The authors combine new GrIS mass loss estimates with eight climate models and an emulator to assess uncertainties and project changes over multiple centuries. They find that by 2090–2100, AMOC weakens by about 18 % (with a 90 % probability range of –3 % to –34 %) under an intermediate mitigation pathway, and by about 37 % (–15 % to –65 %) under a high-emissions trajectory. Under high emissions, further decline is projected toward the years 2290–2300 (–74 % median, with wide uncertainty) and there is a ~44 % chance of full collapse. The results suggest that a collapse of AMOC might be avoided under stringent CO₂ mitigation.

Relevant climate hazards: Temperature; Precipitation; Sea level rise