Scientific paper │ KNMI’23 climate scenarios for the Netherlands: storyline scenarios of regional climate change

Author(s): K. van der Wiel, J. Beersma, H. van den Brink, F. Krikken, F. Selten, C. Severijns, A. Sterl, E. van Meijgaard, T. Reerink, R. van Dorland
Date: 2024-02-11 
Language: English

This paper develops six national climate scenarios (KNMI’23) for the Netherlands that aim to span a large fraction of the uncertainty in CMIP6-based climate projections. It uses a “storyline” approach, combining different global warming levels (based on SSP pathways) with two regional precipitation‐trend variants (wet vs. dry). To increase spatial detail, the authors reconstruct regional responses by resampling internal variability from ensembles of GCM‐RCM runs. The resulting scenarios are intended for use in impact modelling and policy planning in Dutch sectors sensitive to climate change.

Relevant climate hazards: Precipitation, Drought, Flood, Temperature