Scientific paper │ KNMI’23 climate scenarios for the Netherlands: storyline scenarios of regional climate change

Author(s): K. van der Wiel, J. Beersma, H. van den Brink, F. Krikken, F. Selten, C. Severijns, A. Sterl, E. van Meijgaard, T. Reerink, R. van Dorland
Date: 2024-02-11 
Language: English

This paper outlines the six national climate scenarios that the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI’23) developed for the Netherlands. The aim is to span a large fraction of the uncertainty in CMIP6-based climate projections. It uses a “storyline” approach, combining different global warming levels (based on socioeconomic pathways) with two regional precipitation‐trend variants (wet versus dry). To increase spatial detail, the authors reconstruct regional responses by resampling internal variability from ensembles of GCM‐RCM runs. The resulting scenarios are intended for use in impact modelling and policy planning in Dutch sectors sensitive to climate change.

Relevant climate hazards: Precipitation, Drought, Flood, Temperature