Scientific paper | A high-resolution compound vulnerability function for European winter storm losses

Author(s): D. van Ederen; M. d. S. Fonseca-Cerda; W. J. W. Botzen; J. C. J. H. Aerts; V. Lupi; P. Scussolini; K. B. Gubbels
Date: 2025-04-04
Language: English

This paper develops a high-resolution vulnerability function for residential-building losses from European winter storms, using residence-level insurance claims matched to ultra-high-resolution meteorological observations. It introduces a compound approach that accounts for both wind gusts and 24-hour cumulative precipitation, capturing combined damage mechanisms such as wind damage and water intrusion. The results show that models using wind only systematically underestimate damage for wetter storms, with underestimation increasing as precipitation totals rise. The study also finds reconstruction value meaningfully affects damage ratios and recommends using probabilistic loss distributions to reflect uncertainty in damage outcomes.

Relevant climate hazards: Wind; Precipitation; Flood