Trends & projections for wildfires

The future trends and projections of wildfire can be roughly divided into the climate trends & projections, and socioeconomic projections.

Climate trends & projections

Over the past decades, the Netherlands has experienced a trend toward warmer, drier, and sunnier weather. According to current projections made by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)(PDF), this trend will continue, including a projected increase in extreme temperatures. As a result, in most climate scenarios, summers become drier. This causes vegetation to become more frequently flammable, and the number of fire-sensitive days will increase. Furthermore, the number of potential ignition sources is , for example as more people recreate outdoors during warmer weather. KNMI has projected that for the Ln-scenario the annual number of days susceptible to wildfires decreases with 25% by 2100, while for the Hd-scenario the annual number of days susceptible to wildfires increases with 300% by 2100.

Winters are projected to become warmer and wetter, lengthening the growing season and leaving more dead plant material by spring. This creates additional fuel for wildfires. Due to climatic developments, wildfires can also become more intense. It is expected with the current climate projections, there will be a higher frequency of uncontrollable wildfires.

Socioeconomic projections

Alongside KNMI’s climate scenarios, the Delta scenarios explore how climate change, emission reductions, and socioeconomic and spatial developments unfold in the future. These scenarios point to more urban densification, with increasing amounts of vegetation in urban areas. As a result, more flammable material will be present in densely populated areas, which could lead to more severe consequences if a wildfire occurs.

The growth of vegetation in urban zones also expands the wildland-urban interface – the area where buildings are located near natural vegetation. This zone is especially vulnerable to wildfires, since both the structures and vegetation can catch fire and fuel the spread.

The projected increase in the number and intensity of wildfires, coupled with further densification of the Netherlands, will lead to an increase in the impact of wildfires. According to a study by the Dutch Institute for Public Safety (NIPV), Deltares, Wageningen University & Research, and KNMI (PDF), the expected impacts include more frequent evacuations for residents and an increase in both direct and indirect damage. Vital infrastructure will fail more often, leading to cascading effects. Additionally, irreversible damage to flora and fauna is anticipated. The rise in both the frequency and intensity of wildfires is also expected to have negative effects on human health (more information on the risk assessment page).

Future impacts

The changes in climatic conditions and socioeconomic landscape of the Netherlands are projected (PDF) to attribute to increased future risk and occurrence of wildfires, leading to expected higher impacts. This is further fuelled by the fire behaviour in the Netherlands: the current firefighting practice is mostly focused on short-term fires in buildings. With wildfires becoming more frequent and intense, it is unlikely that the current fire brigade capacity and resources are sufficient – especially if the fire service is also expected to take additional roles related to societal resilience and domestic tasks. This will result in higher socio-economic and ecological impacts.