Trends & projections for changing temperature

The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) reported (PDF) that the annual average temperature in the Netherlands has risen by more than two degrees since measurements began in 1906. This is almost twice as much as the increase in the global average temperature. The current warming rate is about 0.4 °C per decade. In spring and summer, the effect is amplified due to stronger solar radiation caused by reduced cloud cover and declining air pollution. Temperature on the hottest days has increased more than the average temperature. The warmest thirty years in the series are all from 1988 and after.

The annual average temperature in De Bilt, the Netherlands, from 1900 to 2100.
The graph shows the measured annual average temperature from 1900 to 2025 in De Bilt, the Netherlands. It also includes the projected annual average temperature until 2100, for different KNMI climate scenarios. The annual average temperature will increase in the future, but stronger under high emission scenarios. Source: KNMI.

Monitoring data indicate (PDF) that temperatures of both lakes and rivers are rising, similar to the increase observed in the air, with a relatively strong increase in spring. However, this warming is not only caused by climate change. For example, between 1978 and 2011, the summer temperature of the Rhine at Koblenz increased by two degrees. Besides climate change the discharge of cooling water from power stations along the river also influenced this increase. The warming of the water in winter and spring has significantly reduced the likelihood of ice cover during winter.

Future projections

According to the KNMI’23 climate scenarios (PDF), the temperature in the Netherlands keeps rising in the coming decades. The projections range from a +0.9 to +1.6 °C change in the annual mean temperature by 2050 relative to the current climate (1991-2020). By 2100, the temperature rise is expected to range from +0.9 to +4.4 °C.

The annual mean warming in the Netherlands in 2050 and 2100 will be larger than the average global warming, according to the KNMI'23 scenarios. It is important to note that there exist large differences in warming between the high and low emission scenarios. This means that global climate policies aiming at reducing emissions can lead to a reduction of the warming.

The temperature increase has the most serious drawbacks in summer, and less in winter and spring. In the dry climate scenarios the stronger warming in the summer will partly be caused by the drier soils and stronger solar radiation.