Trends & projections for groundwater floods

This section describes future projections for climate-related hazards in the Netherlands, affecting groundwater flooding. Apart from changes in climate-related hazards, climate risk also depends on exposure and vulnerability. Please refer to the Risk assessment guidance page for more information.

Future climate-related hazards in the Netherlands, particularly those affecting groundwater flooding, are projected to intensify by 2100. Depending on the scenario used in the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute’s climate scenarios (KNMI’23), the total winter precipitation is projected to increase by 4-24% by 2100 compared to 1991-2020. At the same time, evaporation is projected to remain roughly the same. This leads to extended groundwater level rise, increasing the likelihood of flooding.

Additionally, KNMI projects that winter precipitation extremes with a 10-year return period will be 8-15% more intense by 2100 (compared to 1991-2020) under a high emission scenario. Summers, meanwhile, are expected to experience a shift from light showers to more intense rainfall over shorter periods, further contributing to peaks in groundwater levels. For additional details on heavy rainfall, please refer to the pluvial flooding page.