Trends & projections for heavy precipitation
This section describes historical trends and future projections for climate-related hazards in the Netherlands, affecting hail, snow, and ice events. Apart from changes in climate-related hazards, climate risk also depends on exposure and vulnerability. Please refer to the Risk assessment guidance page for more information.
Hail
Information on historic trends of hail events in the Netherlands is limited due to a lack of comprehensive data. The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute’s (KNMI) 2023 climate scenarios (PDF) include projections on hail events in the future, albeit with a range of uncertainty. As global temperatures rise, observations and modelling anticipate that hailstorm likelihood, frequency, and hail size will increase in most regions in Europe. However, these projections show large spatial and temporal variability and are highly uncertain for the Netherlands.
Snow and ice
KNMI projections do not indicate future trends in snow and ice events. However, their measurements (PDF) detail that, on average, the Bilt experienced 53 frost days (minimum temperature is below 0°C) and 6 ice days (maximum temperature is below 0°C) per year between 1991 and 2020. Future projections show that rising temperatures in the Netherlands will reduce the number of ice days, depending on the climate scenario applied. A low emissions scenario projects four ice days per year in 2050 and 2100. Using the high emission scenario, projections indicate that three ice days per year in 2050, and less than one in 2100 can occur. This decrease is also caused by a lower inflow of cold air from Northern Europe, as winter temperatures increase even more sharply in that region.
The weakening of the Gulf Stream and its impacts
Climate change is projected to slow down a major ocean current in the Atlantic, according to research from KNMI and Utrecht University. This current, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), helps move warm water around the ocean. One important part of it is the Gulf Stream, which carries warm water from the tropics toward northwestern Europe, including the Netherlands.
If the AMOC weakens further, the Netherlands is projected to become colder. Scientists predict this results in more frost and ice days. However, they are still uncertain about how much the AMOC will weaken and when these changes happen.
