Changing precipitation patterns and types (rain, hail, snow/ice)

This section includes information on the trends & projections of changing precipitation patterns and types, as well as precipitation and hydrological variability in the Netherlands.

Measurements by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)(PDF) show that since 1906, annual precipitation in the Netherlands has increased by approximately 20%. In particular, winter has become considerably wetter, with a rise of around 30% in precipitation since the early 1900s. Autumn (+ 20%), summer (+ 10%), and spring (+ 5-10%) also experienced an increase in rainfall in the same period of time. Despite this overall rise, natural variations in rainfall remain substantial, reflecting the inherent variability of the hydrological cycle over time.

Climate change has a direct impact on precipitation patterns due to its influence on atmospheric dynamics. One key factor is the increasing capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture (PDF): the atmosphere can retain approximately 7% more water vapor per degree of warming. This increased moisture content can lead to more intense rainfall, but the overall precipitation is potentially also influenced by shifting wind patterns. KNMI's 2023 climate scenarios project limited changes in future annual rainfall, but larger changes in seasonal variability.

Graph displaying the past, present and future annual precipitation in the Netherlands, including for the four projected KNMI climate scenarios.
The graph shows annual precipitation in the Netherlands from 1906 to August 2025, with a small upward trend. It also projects rainfall to 2100 under different emission scenarios. In the high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5), annual precipitation is around 848 millimetres in the dry scenario and 953 millimetres in the wet scenario by 2100. In the low-emission pathway (SSP1-2.6), it is around 881 millimetres in the dry scenario and 897 millimetres in the wet scenario. Source: KNMI.

Future projections: seasonal change in precipitation

Overall, KNMI projections of future rainfall in the Netherlands (PDF) show an increase in autumn, winter, and spring precipitation, while summer rainfall is projected to decrease. By 2100, the projected mean increase in total winter rainfall is 4-24% compared to 1991-2020, although large differences exist in the different climate scenarios. This anticipated increase in winter rainfall is driven by more westerly winds, which carry moist air from the Atlantic into the Netherlands. In contrast, summer precipitation is projected to decline across all KNMI climate scenarios. By 2100, the projected mean decrease in summer precipitation is set between 2% to 29% compared to 1991-2020. This reduction is associated with more high pressure and descending air in combination with more easterly winds that bring dry, continental air into the Netherlands.

Observed precipitation in winter (top graph) increases in winter in almost all climate scenarios, while observed precipitation in summer (bottom graph) decreases in the Netherlands.
The graphs show the observed rainfall in the Netherlands for winter (left graph) and summer (right graph) from 1906 to August 2025. They also project rainfall to 2100 under different emission scenarios. In the high-emission pathway (SSP5-8.5), winter precipitation is projected to be around 258-284 millimetres and summer precipitation 176-216 millimetres by 2100, depending on the dry or wet scenario. In the low-emission pathway (SSP1-2.6), winter precipitation is around 237-239 millimetres and summer precipitation 225-233 millimetres by 2100. Source: KNMI.