KNMI outlines plausible extreme weather scenarios already possible in today’s Dutch climate

The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) has published a report called 'Een Extreem Rapport' (PDF), an extensive analysis of extreme weather events that could already occur in the Netherlands under current climate conditions. Rather than focusing on distant future projections, the report examines so-called plausible extremes: rare but physically realistic weather scenarios that have not yet occurred, or have narrowly been avoided, but could have major societal impacts.

The report brings together nine case studies covering a wide range of hazards, including extreme heat, large wildfires, prolonged cold spells, severe storms linked to former hurricanes, tropical cyclones affecting Caribbean Netherlands, prolonged drought affecting river discharge, intense rainfall, periods of low renewable energy production, and the spread of vector-borne disease. Each case combines meteorological analysis with an assessment of impacts on specific sectors or regions, such as public health, infrastructure, emergency services, energy supply, water management, and transport.

KNMI emphasises that extreme weather changes faster than average climate conditions, meaning past experience is no longer a reliable guide to present-day risk. Using ensemble weather forecasts and high-resolution regional models, the report explores how small differences in atmospheric development could have led to far more severe outcomes during recent events, such as the 2018 heatwave, the 2021 winter cold spell, and former hurricane Kirk in 2024.

A central message of the report is that many extreme impacts arise from the interaction of weather conditions with societal vulnerability. Compound events, such as heat combined with high energy demand or drought combined with low river discharge, can create cascading disruptions. KNMI therefore stresses the importance of improving the full chain from weather forecasting to risk communication, preparedness, and response.

The report concludes that analysing plausible extremes can help governments, emergency services, and other stakeholders stress-test systems and identify weak points before disasters occur. By integrating meteorological expertise with sector-specific impact knowledge, KNMI aims to support a more resilient and climate-ready society in the face of increasing uncertainty.