New study enhances hailstorm prediction and loss assessment for Dutch agriculture

A new study by scientists from VU Amsterdam, Deltares, and their partners reveals that hailstorms pose one of the costliest weather threats to the Netherlands’ farming sector. Using more than a decade of insurance records and radar data, the team found that hail accounts for nearly a third of all insured natural-disaster losses in recent years. The analysis shows that hailstones larger than around 1.5 centimetres are the main cause of serious damage to agricultural buildings, particularly during the warmer months.

The research highlights that hail risk varies widely across the country, with larger and more intense storms concentrated in parts of the southern and eastern Netherlands. By combining weather data with reports of insured losses, the team developed models that can better anticipate when and where damaging hail is likely to occur. These models could help insurers, farmers, and local authorities prepare more effectively and reduce the economic impact of future storms.

The authors note that as the climate changes, hailstorms may become more frequent or severe, increasing the urgency for improved risk assessment and adaptation strategies. Their work offers a foundation for more accurate hail forecasts and for building a more resilient agricultural sector in the Netherlands.