Dutch Safety Board warns of safety risks from extreme rainfall

Extreme rainfall in the Netherlands is no longer just a matter of wet feet and local nuisance; it is increasingly a safety issue. In a new report, the Dutch Safety Board (in Dutch: Onderzoeksraad voor Veiligheid) concludes that the country is not sufficiently prepared for the current and future safety risks from more frequent and intense downpours. The Board points to recent events, from the 2021 Limburg floods to the exceptionally wet period from autumn 2023 to summer 2024, as clear signals that existing systems and policies are struggling to keep up with a changing climate.

The investigation focuses on three case studies that together illustrate the breadth of the risk. In Nijverdal, high groundwater following a record-wet autumn infiltrated a substation, cutting power to more than 11,000 connections and highlighting how a single vulnerable asset in a river valley can trigger wider disruption. In Doetinchem, heavy rainfall twice forced the temporary closure of the accident and emergency department of the Slingeland Hospital, with access routes and the emergency entrance under water. And in the Enschede neighbourhoods of Pathmos and Stadsveld, a cloudburst on 21 July 2024 sent rain and sewage into dozens of mainly rental homes, leading to long-lasting damp, mould, and health complaints; 57 households were eventually rehoused and later informed they could not return as the homes were deemed too vulnerable to future events.

Across these cases, the Board identifies two primary risk drivers: the intensity of rainfall and the vulnerability of specific areas. Vulnerability is shaped by geography, land use, sewer capacity and the presence of vital infrastructure, but also by building quality and the social and economic position of residents. Existing policies on water management and climate adaptation tend to emphasise damage and nuisance rather than safety, are often process-oriented and lack concrete, binding standards. At the same time, early-warning and monitoring systems are under-used: actual groundwater levels are not widely shared, local data are not systematically integrated into risk assessments, and legal constraints still limit the scope for targeted early weather warnings by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI).

The Board calls for stronger national steering to close this safety gap. Recommendations include broadening local and regional climate stress tests to cover building and socio-economic factors, setting clear safety-based requirements for water-robust and climate-resilient housing, vital infrastructure and public space, and launching a targeted programme for the most vulnerable neighbourhoods. Industry groups such as Bouwend Nederland and the financial sector’s climate adaptation working group are cited as arguing for mandatory climate-resilient construction standards to reduce future risks. For banks, insurers and investors, the message is that location-specific extreme-rainfall risk is becoming a structural driver of physical risk, credit risk and asset value, particularly in older, low-lying and socially vulnerable urban areas.

Ultimately, the Dutch Safety Board concludes that while much knowledge and policy exists, the pace and scale of concrete measures lag behind the accelerating increase in extreme rainfall. Without faster and larger-scale investment in adaptive infrastructure, resilient building stock and better early-warning and crisis preparedness, safety risks will grow, and the burden will fall disproportionately on those with the least financial resilience.