New scenarios sharpen future climate risk analysis
A new research paper sets out the scenario framework for ScenarioMIP-CMIP7, the next major set of climate model experiments. These scenarios will help researchers explore how different emissions pathways could shape future climate hazards. They are not forecasts, but structured “what if” pathways for studying possible climate futures.
What does the new framework include?
The framework proposes seven scenarios for future emissions, land use and greenhouse gas concentrations. They range from a High scenario, where climate action weakens and emissions remain high, to a Very Low scenario, where rapid emissions cuts keep warming as low as judged plausible. The framework also includes medium pathways linked to current policies, delayed action, and pathways with temporary overshoot followed by stronger reductions.
The scenarios are designed for CMIP7, the next phase of global climate model comparison. Most will be run in emissions-driven mode for CO₂. This means Earth system models will calculate parts of the carbon cycle themselves, rather than only following prescribed concentration levels. This can help researchers better understand uncertainty in long-term climate outcomes.
Why does this matter for physical climate risk?
The scenarios will support future studies on changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity and other climate variables. These changes shape physical climate hazards such as heat, drought, heavy rainfall, river flooding and coastal flooding. For the Netherlands, these hazards matter for homes, infrastructure, agriculture, nature, business sites and water systems.
The paper also includes long-term extensions up to 2500. These can help researchers study slow climate processes and possible irreversibility. This is relevant for risks such as sea level rise and long-term pressure on flood protection. However, the authors note that the scenarios do not describe climate impacts on society or ecosystems. Impact and adaptation studies must add that layer.
What can users take from this?
ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 offers a common basis for comparing climate outcomes across different pathways and time horizons. This can support future research, public policy, adaptation planning and risk assessment. For professional users, including those in the financial sector, the scenarios can be useful input for understanding the climate conditions that may affect assets, activities and regions.
The results should be used with care. The scenarios are plausible pathways, not predictions, and they do not assign probabilities. Their value lies in helping users explore how different choices and emissions pathways may affect future climate conditions. Combined with local maps, exposure data and adaptation information, they can support clearer decisions about physical climate risk.