Six scenarios show the impact of climate disasters

How serious is the flood risk?

A coastal flood is the most costly scenario, followed by a fluvial flood. In the fluvial flood scenario, heavy rain and a coastal storm push water levels very high. A dike then breaks and about 250 square kilometres floods, with water several metres deep. The scenario counts nearly 2,000 deaths, more than 150,000 affected people and about 18 billion euros of damage, while power, drinking water and roads fail. The report cites an estimated chance of between 1 in 100 and 1 in 1,000 per year for this dike section. In the sea scenario, an extreme storm hits the north of the Netherlands and dikes break in the Provincies of Friesland, Groningen, Flevoland and North Holland. More than 500,000 people are affected and damage reaches nearly 65 billion euros. Pumping the water out takes almost ten months, and cleaning the area and restoring vital infrastructure takes two years. The report puts the chance of such a flood at once in 4,000 years.

What about heat, drought, wildfires and storms?

The other scenarios have lower estimated damage, but the report rates them as more likely. The heat and drought scenario combines more than three months of drought with a thirteen-day heatwave, including four days above 40°C. It leads to about 650 extra deaths and more than 2 billion euros of damage. Low river levels hamper inland shipping and Dutch ports fill up. River water also gets so warm that power stations may no longer discharge cooling water. In the long term, dry soil can damage building foundations. Wildfires are rated very likely, because an uncontrollable fire occurs almost every year. In the scenario, two large fires burn 1,200 hectares, thousands of people evacuate and several dozen people die. The damage is estimated at tens of millions of euros. The snowstorm scenario for the densely populated Randstad costs several billion euros. It cuts more than a million people off from electricity and from buying food for several days.

How does climate change shift the risks?

The report expects climate change to make most of these hazards more likely and more severe, but only gradually. It expects higher average temperatures, more and stronger heatwaves, drier summers and more heavy showers. Rising seas and sinking land increase the threat of flooding. Drought and warmth reinforce each other, so the wildfire risk rises faster than the climate changes. Snowstorms are expected to become less likely. The report also describes recent events. The springs of 2025 and 2026 were very dry. On 29 April 2026 several large wildfires burned at the same time, and the Netherlands asked the European Union for extra firefighting capacity for the first time. Because the changes are gradual, the likelihood and impact scores have not yet risen compared with the previous analysis from 2022.

How should the scenarios be read?

The report calls the scenarios fictional but plausible illustrations of how a threat could show up in the coming years. They are not an exhaustive list. For hail, freezing rain, storms in the European part of the Netherlands, heavy rain and fog, no scenario was worked out, because the report expects a similar kind of impact. In the flood scenarios, the damage figures cover direct physical damage and business interruption. Costs such as lost transport options come on top.

Where is the Netherlands vulnerable?

When a flood or certain forms of extreme weather hit a large area, emergency services can run short of staff and equipment, and coordination becomes harder. Several wildfires at the same time also stretch the limited number of specialist firefighting teams. In addition, organisations involved in crisis response worry about the future availability of military support. The report adds that the Netherlands is a small, open economy. Climate effects elsewhere can therefore reach the country too, for example through blocked trade routes, failed harvests and higher food prices. The scenarios show that the Netherlands faces many different climate hazards, and that a single event can disrupt daily life for months.