Trends & projections for soil erosion

The future development of soil erosion in the Netherlands depends on how its main drivers (rainfall and wind) evolve (PDF). Climate change influences erosion primarily through changes in the intensity of rainfall and wind. Heavy rainfall is projected by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) to occur more frequently and with greater intensity in the Netherlands, which increases the erosive power of water. By contrast, no clear trends are projected for future wind patterns. As a result, soil erosion in the Netherlands is not expected to change substantially overall, with the exception of changes driven by rainfall. Research on soil loss projections in Europe notes that land use change can also shape future erosion rates, though rainfall remains the dominant driver for the Netherlands. For more information on the future projections of rainfall and wind, see Flood (pluvial) and Changing wind patterns.