Trends & projections for pluvial floods

This section describes future projections for climate-related hazards in the Netherlands, affecting pluvial flooding. Apart from changes in climate-related hazards, climate risk also depends on exposure and vulnerability. Please refer to the Risk assessment guidance page for more information.

The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute's (KNMI) 2023 climate scenarios project that heavy precipitation will become more frequent and intense in the Netherlands in the future. However, the extent depends on the scenario, rainfall intensity and return period. Winter precipitation extremes with a 10-year return period are projected by KNMI to be 8-15% more intense by 2100 under a high-emission scenario. Apart from such extremes, the total winter precipitation is projected to increase by 4-24% by 2100, compared to 1991-2020. This results in higher probabilities of high river discharge, with consequences for water safety and with respect to pluvial flooding.

Future projections of summer (PDF) precipitation show fewer light showers. Instead, precipitation extremes will increase. In other words, future summers will see a shift to higher intensity rainfall. Pluvial flood risk (PDF) is thus projected to change due to changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation. Indirectly, climate change influences pluvial flood risk through changes in relative sea level, drought, and groundwater levels, see for more information the pages on Sea level rise, Drought and Groundwater flooding.