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The research presents the ScenarioMIP-CMIP7 framework for global climate model experiments. It proposes seven plausible emissions pathways, ranging from high warming to very low emissions, including overshoot and delayed-action cases. These scenarios support climate research and policy development, including their use in assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They enable more robust projections of physical hazards such as heat, drought, flooding, and sea level rise.

The European State of the Climate 2025 report highlights a year of strong physical climate signals across Europe. The main outcomes are widespread above-average temperatures, severe heatwaves, extensive soil moisture deficits, below-average river flows, record wildfire activity, record sea surface temperatures, widespread marine heatwaves, continued glacier loss and very low snow cover. The report also shows that Europe is warming faster than the global average, making these hazards increasingly relevant for adaptation, spatial planning, water management and climate risk analysis.

The report shows that foundation damage in the Netherlands is a growing physical climate risk with direct consequences for homes and households. It estimates that more than 120,000 owner-occupiers need foundation repair now, with total repair costs of about €11 billion. Many owners cannot cover these costs themselves, and a sizeable group cannot safely finance them through standard mortgage lending. The main message is that earlier risk information, preventive action and collective support will be essential to limit further damage and avoid pushing larger problems into the future.

A new staff paper by the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) proposes a European natural catastrophe risk-sharing mechanism built around two layers: a shared insurance pool and a loan-based backstop for extreme events. The authors argue that cross-border pooling could improve diversification, reduce capital needs and help narrow Europe’s catastrophe insurance protection gap. The proposal is still at discussion stage, but it adds to the debate on how Europe can strengthen financial resilience as climate-related and other natural catastrophe losses grow.

The Netherlands Enviromental Agency's report shows that the Netherlands faces increasing physical climate risks from heat, drought and heavy rainfall, even if current policy continues. It looks across sectors including health, housing, agriculture, infrastructure, energy, water and digital systems, and finds that many risks will grow without additional adaptation. Its central message is that the country must make clear choices between mainly technical measures and more structural changes in land and water use, with the latter often offering stronger long-term risk reduction.

A new article analyses how climate change affects the finances of Dutch municipalities through higher damage costs and the need for substantial adaptation investments. Without extra measures, direct climate damage in 2050 could exceed 8.5 billion euros, with some municipalities facing damage equal to more than half of their annual budget. At the same time, climate impacts can reduce income from property taxes by lowering real estate values. Necessary adaptation measures such as water storage and urban greening are estimated to cost around 4.2 billion euros in 2050 and weigh heavily on local budgets. The authors conclude that national funding rules and disaster compensation laws must be updated to reflect local climate risks and to support timely prevention at municipal level.

A new global study of 385 coastal hazard assessments shows that almost all of them handle sea level and land elevation data incorrectly. Many studies assume that sea level matches an idealised global “geoid” surface instead of using actual sea level measurements. The authors find that measured coastal sea level is on average about 25 centimetres higher than these models suggest and can be more than 1 metre higher in parts of the Global South. As a result, earlier work has probably underestimated how much land and how many people lie below future sea levels when sea level rises.

A new study by Deltares, NIPV and TNO explores how climate threats such as heat, drought and wildfire can trigger chain reactions in vital infrastructure and public services in the Netherlands. Using a detailed scenario around prolonged drought, a severe heatwave and a nature fire near Zandvoort, the authors show how power cuts, telecom failures and mobility problems can quickly build up and strain crisis organisations. They conclude that structural scarcity of people and resources, unclear roles between levels of government, and limited insight into interdependencies all increase systemic risk, and that an integrated, multi-hazard approach is urgently needed.

Europe is already experiencing heavy losses from heat, drought, floods and wildfires, and these risks are set to grow. A new EU-level scientific report calls for a much stronger and more coherent adaptation policy framework. It proposes common climate scenarios, clear resilience targets and better use of public and private finance. This will directly influence how banks, insurers and investors across Europe, including in the Netherlands, assess and manage physical climate risks.

Research by Deltares, the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, and Achmea shows that structural damage to residential homes caused by flooding is underestimated in the Dutch Damage and Casualty Model (SSM2023). The damage function from this model is therefore not suitable for use by the financial sector.