Trends & projections for soil degradation

Future trends and projections of soil degradation in the Netherlands strongly depend on climate change and the processes it drives. These include increasing temperatures, drought, pluvial flooding, sea level rise and subsidence.

Climate change increases temperatures, including soil temperatures (find more information on the Changing temperature page). This trend is projected to continue in the future. As soil temperatures rise, the breakdown (oxidation) of soil organic matter accelerates (PDF). As organic matter declines, the soil’s water retention capacity and fertility decrease, while greenhouse gases are released, further reinforcing rising temperatures (PDF). Soil organic matter also helps buffer changes in soil temperature. Its decline may therefore reduce the soil’s ability to moderate temperature changes.

Besides increasing temperatures, climate change affects soils through changing precipitation patterns (PDF), including more frequent heavy rainfall and drought (visit the pages on Flood (pluvial) and Drought for more information). The Netherlands is projected to experience more extreme drought periods, which can dry out soils and reduce their sponge function. More frequent and intense rainfall is expected to increase soil degradation, nutrient leaching and waterlogging. Extreme drought can also be followed by extreme rainfall, further increasing pressure on soil health (PDF).

In addition, climate change contributes to sea level rise, while extensive parts of the Netherlands experience continuous subsidence. In low-lying areas, brackish groundwater can rise to the surface and enter soils, increasing salinity (PDF). For more information, visit the pages on Sea level rise and Subsidence.