Trends & projections for cold wave/frost
Cold waves are becoming less common in the Netherlands because of climate change. Between 1991 and early 2026, 34 official cold waves were recorded. Most of them occurred in the 20th century. So far, there has been only one official cold wave. Before that cold wave, the Netherlands had already gone 15 years without one.
In the Climate Impact Atlas you can see how the number of ice days and frost days per year may change in the future. Different climate scenarios can be selected to explore how these changes might be affected by greenhouse gas emissions in the future. The map also visualises regional differences across the Netherlands.
In the future, cold waves will not only be less common in the Netherlands but, on average, also less severe. According to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute's 2023 climate scenarios (KNMI'23)(PDF) , cold waves will most likely last for shorter periods than they did in the previous century. Cold air from northern Siberia, which often causes cold waves, can still reach the Netherlands. However, scientific research shows that air from the north warms up faster than the global average. This will reduce the intensity of cold waves in the Netherlands. As a result, cold waves are expected to become less severe than would be predicted based only on rising average temperatures.
Although cold waves are expected to become less frequent as the climate warms, they are unlikely to disappear completely. According to the KNMI, atmospheric blocking patterns, a driver of cold waves in the Netherlands, are expected to continue to occur in the future. In 2025, the KNMI published a report describing several extreme weather events (PDF) that could have occurred under today's climate if weather conditions had developed slightly differently. One example was an extreme cold wave caused by atmospheric blocking, with potential impacts on gas use. By 2100, such an extreme cold wave could still occur, although its likelihood is projected to decrease in all KNMI'23 climate scenarios.
The weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its impacts
Climate change is expected to slow down a major ocean current in the Atlantic, according to research by KNMI and Utrecht University. This current, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), transports water through the ocean and carries warm, salt water from the tropics towards northwestern Europe. This is why the Netherlands has a milder climate than locations in North America at similar latitudes.
If the AMOC weakens further, less warm water will be transported towards the Netherlands. If the AMOC collapses, winter temperatures in particular could become lower, resulting in more frost and ice days. Although the likelihood of an AMOC collapse increases with higher greenhouse gas emissions, the impact would be smaller.
Scientists are still uncertain about how strongly the AMOC will weaken, the exact likelihood of a collapse, and when such a collapse could take place. At the same time, recent research has shown that the AMOC is less stable than previously thought and that the likelihood of a collapse is higher than previously assumed. Observations also show a slight decrease in the strength of the AMOC of about 5% per decade.
