Trends & projections for subsidence

The Netherlands has a long history with human-induced subsidence. Large-scale lowering of groundwater levels began about 1,000 years ago and still takes place today. In the Netherlands, gas extraction in the province of Groningen has caused decimetres of subsidence between 1965 and 2025. For smaller gas fields (which are also present in provinces other than Groningen), subsidence due to gas extraction is often less.

Land subsidence in mining areas is expected to continue. In active mining areas, this is influenced by the level of ongoing activity; however, in previously mined areas, subsidence can continue for years after extraction has stopped, due to delayed compaction effects. Future subsidence of soft soil areas is mainly influenced by groundwater management, and to a lesser extent by climate change.

Water management plays a key role: in many areas, groundwater levels are currently lowered in step with subsidence (known as water level indexation) to preserve existing land use, but this practice is increasingly being phased out in favour of fixed water levels. Where levels are fixed, subsidence gradually slows, as reduced peat oxidation and consolidation cause the rate of subsidence to decrease over time. In built-up areas, however, groundwater levels must be kept low to avoid inundation damage and unliveable conditions, meaning some subsidence is unavoidable there.

Climate change is expected to bring longer periods of drought, causing groundwater levels to drop deeper and for longer in subsidence-prone areas. This accelerates peat oxidation and increases the shrinkage and consolidation of clay and peat, while higher temperatures further speed up the biological processes behind peat decomposition.